One study found that around 90 % of people give up on their resolutions within the first few weeks. University of Delaware+2PMC+2
Given this reality, it may be that the traditional timing of goal-setting — on or just before 1 January — is sub-optimal. In contrast, planning your goals in October or November offers several strategic advantages. This article explores why these months provide a better window for goal-planning, how they align with psychological and behavioural science, and offers practical guidance for taking advantage of this “pre-year” period.
The Science of Goal-setting: Foundation For Timing
Before considering timing, it is important to ground ourselves in the core research on goal-setting.
Goal-setting theory: According to the classic work of Edwin A. Locke and Gary P. Latham, clearly defined and challenging goals significantly improve performance compared to vague or easy goals. PositivePsychology.com+1
Effective goals are specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, time-bound (SMART). PositivePsychology.com+1
Setting goals aligned with one’s values and intentionally planned leads to greater motivation. Mark Manson+1
Planning matters: A study on planning found that “backward planning” — imagining you’ve already achieved the goal and then working backwards to today’s steps — reduces anxiety, increases confidence, and yields more effort. Association for Psychological Science
Challenges in New Year resolutions: Reliable research indicates that while the New Year may feel like a natural reset, many resolutions are set hurriedly, with inadequate planning, and are prone to failure. For example, a longitudinal study found many abandon their resolution in the first month. PMC+1
From this foundation one sees that: (a) goal-setting should be deliberate; (b) planning, including structuring steps and timeline, is critical; and (c) simplistic “goals by New Year’s Day” may lead to weak follow-through.
Why October/November is an Ideal Window For Panning
Here are the key reasons why October and November are particularly good months for planning New Year goals and outcomes.
1. Period of reflection and reduced distraction
By October/November, three-quarters of the calendar year has passed. Many professionals and individuals have already reviewed (even informally) what has worked and what hasn’t in the current year. This time offers a natural reflective phase before year-end busyness fully kicks in.
Starting planning in these months allows you to pause, reflect and design goals rather than reacting under the pressure and fatigue of the holiday season or crisp January start.
2. Leverage the “fresh start” effect with lead time
Research has shown that temporal landmarks — transitions such as New Year’s Day, birthdays, or the beginning of a month or season — can trigger goal initiation by helping individuals “disassociate” from their past self and focus on future-self. Lumivero+1
By planning in October/November, you bring forward this “fresh start” mindset. You get the motivational boost of a “new beginning” but with more lead-time to shape your plan carefully (rather than scrambling in January). The “October Theory” (popular in wellness journalism) points exactly to this: autumn is a de facto second “new year” moment. verywellmind.com
3. Builds a runway toward January action
Starting planning in October/November means you can complete the design phase in advance, then hit January ready to launch, rather than planning and launching simultaneously.
For example:
October: Reflect on the past year, identify themes, clarify values.
November: Develop specific goals, draft metrics, carve out actions, schedule checkpoints.
December: Finalise and communicate your plan, set January as your “go-live”.
This sequencing gives you time to build awareness and momentum rather than being rushed.
4. Avoids holiday/start-of-year fatigue and overload
As one article noted, one disadvantage of starting big on 1 January is the residual fatigue from the holiday season (late nights, spending, social obligations) that leaves many people with a low energy ‘tank’ on 1 January. Lumivero
By doing the planning in October/November, you bypass the chaotic start-of-year window and can launch when you’re fresher and more focused.
5. Time for testing and adjustment
Since research shows that not all goals stick — for example, flexibility (the ability to adjust goals) predicted better wellbeing in a New Year resolution study, although not necessarily better stickability. PMC
By planning earlier, you have the option of piloting or adjusting parts of your strategy ahead of full implementation. If you notice the plan is overly ambitious, you can scale back or refine it rather than waiting until disappointment in February or March.
Practical Steps For Planning in October/November
Here is a recommended roadmap for using October/November to plan for your New Year goals.
Reflection (October)
Review the last 12 months: successes, setbacks, lessons.
Identify key themes (personal growth, career, health, relationships).
Consider your core values—what matters most now (cf. goal‐value alignment in goal-setting theory). Mark Manson
Clarify outcomes and time horizon (October/November)
Choose 3-5 major outcomes you want in the coming year.
For each outcome, don’t simply ask why is this important? Rather, more powerful questions like: What will achieving this outcome do for me? What is the first step in making this happen? How will I know I’ve achieved it?
Instead of the old SMART model, use the more powerful NLP Well Formed Outcome setting, The SMARTS Model.
Backward planning / mapping out steps (November)
For each goal, imagine the end-state (e.g., December next year) and work back to today. Association for Psychological Science
Break down into quarterly / monthly / weekly milestones.
Identify possible obstacles and alternative routes (flexibility).
Resource and support planning
What resources (time, money, people) will you need?
What habits or routines support your goals?
Who will hold you accountable? A partner, mentor, coach?
Pre-launch preparation (late November / December)
Communicate your goals/commitments (this often increases commitment).
Set up tracking tools or dashboards (journals, apps, spreadsheets).
Decide a launch date (often 1 January, or a “soft start” earlier in January).
Consider a “pre-start” check: have you prepared routines, cleared major distractions?
Launch and iterate (January onward)
On launch day, you begin executing your plan rather than designing it.
Schedule regular checkpoints (monthly reviews).
Build flexibility: if something isn’t working, adjust rather than abandon.
Addressing Potential Counterarguments
Some may argue that planning in October/November isn’t necessary because “January is still the new start”. Indeed, cultural rituals support January as a reset point. Lumivero+1
However:
If one waits until January to both plan and enact, the risk of rushed, under-prepared goals increases — leading to failure.
Many systems research suggest that delaying action beyond planning reduces follow-through due to procrastination and present bias. arXiv
Another objection: “I’ll be too busy over the holidays to plan in November.” While true for some, the key is that the planning phase (rather than full execution) typically requires less intense energy than action. Thus even modest time in November can reap benefits.
Planning your goals for the coming year in October and November positions you strategically ahead of the time-worn rush of January. You gain the benefit of reflection, the fresh-start effect, runway for planning, avoidance of early-year fatigue, and the chance to test and refine your approach.
By aligning this timing with the robust science of goal-setting — clear, value-aligned goals; backward planning; resource preparation; flexibility — you markedly increase your chances of success.
If you prepare now, you don’t just resolve in January — you execute.
Click HERE to download a New Year Goals & Outcomes Planning Workbook.
References
Dickson, J. M., et al. (2021). Self-Regulatory Goal Motivational Processes in Sustained New Year Resolution Pursuit. Frontiers in Psychology. PMC
Oscarsson, M., et al. (2020). A large-scale experiment on New Year’s resolutions. PMC. PMC
Roy Chowdhury, M. (2019). The Science & Psychology of Goal-Setting 101. PositivePsychology.com. PositivePsychology.com
Houston, E. (2019). What is Goal Setting and How to Do It Well. PositivePsychology.com. PositivePsychology.com
Lumivero. (2023, Feb 10). Is there a best time to start a new goal? Lumivero
VerywellMind / “TikTok’s ‘October Theory’…” (2024) — trend article noting autumn as second new-year for goals. verywellmind.com
